SAG Actor Awards: 'The Odyssey' up, 'Digger' down in early odds

The Odyssey‘s heroic journey through awards season is on track to continue through the Actor Awards, according to the early Gold Derby odds.

Given the star-powered cast, it’s little surprise that Christopher Nolan’s epic tops the leaderboard with predicted nominations for film ensemble, lead actor for Matt Damon, supporting actor for John Leguizamo, and supporting actress for both Anne Hathaway and Samantha Morton.

But last year’s record haul of seven nominations for One Battle After Another in on track to remain intact — no film in the race this year currently projected to exceed that mark, needing at least one contender in all five film categories (stunt ensemble notwithstanding).

Christopher Nolan; Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Tom Cruise

This season does offer plenty for the voting members of SAG-AFTRA to choose from, with starry ensembles featuring familiar faces and plenty of past winners — the types of roles they tend to recognize.

Worth remembering: While the winners of the Actor Awards are chosen by the full voting body of over 100,000 members, the nominations are determined by a committee of 2,500 randomly selected members. And though the ensemble winner historically has a roughly 50% predictive rate of what will go on to win the Best Picture Oscar, the individual acting races have a much higher accuracy rate, since the acting branches do mirror those of the Academy and are one of the largest voting blocs. Last year, for example, all four acting winners — Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), and Amy Madigan (Weapons) — repeated at the Oscars. But the Actor Awards’ Best Ensemble winner Sinners fell to One Battle After Another at the Academy Awards.

Here’s a category-by-category look at how the five film races stand as of now:

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE

Along with The Odyssey, The Invite should perform well with the Actors — no surprise given its auspices. The film is on track for an ensemble nomination, along with nods for its star and director Olivia Wilde, supporting actress Penélope Cruz, and supporting actor Edward Norton. The only one left out: Seth Rogen, who’s at No. 14 in the far more competitive lead actor race.

Another strong performer looks to be Wild Horse Nine, Martin McDonagh’s dark comedy. Along with its ensemble nod, our prognosticators are predicting recognition for stars John Malkovich (lead actor) and supporting actor Sam Rockwell. Supporting actress hopefuls Parker Posey and Mariana Di Girolamo are just outside the range at No. 7 and No. 8, respectively.

Digger‘s odds look shakier, though. Though it boasts one of the season’s strongest ensembles — it has fallen to No. 5 in the ensemble race, down 15% since the social sentiment embargo lifted. That leaves room for surging challengers like La Bola Negra (up 6%) and Being Heumann (up 9%) to break into the top five.

BEST FILM ACTOR

Malkovich holds the top spot here as he does in the Oscar race — it’s the rest of the slate that looks a bit different. Damon’s in the No. 2 slot — well-positioned to add to his three solo acting noms from the guild. Can Cruise hold on to the No. 3 slot? He’s down 9% — the last time he was nominated was 25 years ago, for Magnolia in 2000.

Film Actor

John Malkovich

Wild Horse Nine

Ryan Gosling

Project Hail Mary

BEST FILM ACTRESS

SAG favorite Julianne Moore — she’s won two trophies and been nominated for four more on her own — looks assured of another nod for The Debut. The only question is who her competition will be in a relatively open field. Along with Wilde, Obsession star Inde Navarrette is mounting a strong campaign for her indie hit. Sandra Hüller was famously snubbed by SAG for Anatomy of a Fall, so perhaps our prognosticators are predicting that history will repeat itself, even though she’s tracking in the Oscar odds for Rose and Fatherland. Instead, they’re going with Being Heumann star Ruth Madeley, whose portrayal of disability activist Judy Heumann is winning raves from critics.

Film Actress

Inde Navarrette

Obsession

Ruth Madeley

Being Heumann

Cynthia Erivo

Prima Facie

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like his Debut co-star, Giamatti can count on a nod for his role in Jesse Eisenberg’s film — actors love actors playing actors. That would mark his fifth career solo nomination. Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine) and Leguizamo (The Odyssey) look to join him as well, as they do on the Oscar odds. How far can goodwill for John Goodman go? The beloved actor is down 8% in the category; time will tell how well audiences dig his role in Digger.

Film Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell

Wild Horse Nine

John Leguizamo

The Odyssey

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The women of The Odyssey, Anne Hathaway and Samantha Morton, hold the 1-2 slots — showing the film’s strength in the race. Elsinore standout Olivia Colman is also a favorite among actors — she’s earned five solo nominations, so no surprise to see her at No. 4. Hüller did make the cut here to land at No. 5 for her Digger role, but is down 7 percentage points.